11/12/2022; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban leaves the field after defeating the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
- Alabama opened Week 13 as a 22-point home favorite against Auburn
- The Crimson Tide are looking for a better New Year’s Day Bowl while the Tigers just want to be bowlable
- Read below for the opening odds between Alabama and Auburn and the line movement prediction
Alabama is listed as a 22-point home favorite against Auburn as the two teams prepare for another “Iron Bowl” fight. Auburn should have a long afternoon and evening.
Let’s look at the opening odds between Alabama and Auburn and analyze which way the line numbers need to move.
Auburn vs. Alabama opening odds
|team||Spread||money line||In total|
|Chestnut Tigers||+22 (-115)||open||open|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||-22 (-105)||open||open|
Odds as of November 20th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the match.
A 22-point favorite, the Crimson Tide sails past Auburn Saturday afternoon from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Alabama has won six of the last eight Iron Bowls, including last year’s game that featured an exciting 24-22 finish in overtime.
Coincidentally, the Crimson Tide cost 5-6 ATS and so do the Tigers. Alabama last covered against Ole Miss on October 22nd. It has been a while.
Alabama is a big home favorite
Alabama and Nick Saban think they have a shot at making a good New Year’s Day Bowl, but a conference title and a college football playoff spot are off the table. Oddsmakers are viewing the Crimson Tide from the SEC conference odds, where Georgia sits at -750 while LSU, their conference championship opponent, sits at +550.
When it comes to National Championship odds, Alabama isn’t there either. It was an unexpected turn of events for Nick Saban, Bryce Young and the Crimson Tide.
In last week’s game against Austin Peay, Alabama won 34-0. However, the fourth quarter was somewhat of a dud as the Crimson Tide failed to cover the 44 point range. It seemed like Alabama went on cruise control.
Austin Peay held #8 Alabama with 34 points…that’s the 𝗙𝗘𝗪𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗦 the Crimson Tide hit against one @NCAA_FCS Team since the FCS was founded in 1978! 🎩🏈#ChaseThePlayoffs | #LetsGoPeay pic.twitter.com/z98GmmNQsp
— Austin Peay Football (@GovsFB) November 19, 2022
The Crimson Tide and its motivations will be interesting this week. There’s no SEC title to play for and no college football playoff spot on the horizon. Can they convincingly beat an eager Auburn team? The Tigers are motivated and want to give their interim coach a bowl.
Is Alabama just venting its frustrations at Auburn with Saturday’s Alabama home game, or can the Tigers keep it tight?
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Can Auburn win and make a bowl?
Interim head coach Cadillac Williams has to give his team a small chance against Alabama on Saturday. Although this game is on the way, Auburn is finally playing better. The Tigers have won two of their three games under Williams and were in the Mississippi State Game to the bitter end. Can offense and defense come together enough this weekend?
Remember when Auburn was really bad in the second half?
like… a few weeks ago? pic.twitter.com/WsMDQx9KUU
— Justin Ferguson (@JFergusonAU) November 20, 2022
Honestly, Auburn needs to run the ball against Alabama and then set up the pass. Check out how teams have attacked the Crimson Tide defenses this season. Yes, the Tigers played an FCS school in western Kentucky, but the blueprint was very clear. This Auburn team was better suited to run first and pass later.
Now they’re getting results that some pundits were expecting earlier in the season. This was an Auburn team that should have won six or seven games with ease. You need an exasperated win just to get to six.
Consequently, some may think that 22 points is too high, but “way too early” the numbers were in the 16 to 18 point range. So an “adjustment” based in part on previous home meets in Alabama (won by 29 in 2020 and 31 in 2018) was needed.
Can Auburn keep the score low and let the rivalry play a little bit in Alabama’s minds? The Crimson Tide have a ten-win season and an Iron Bowl to play, but little else.
Auburn vs Alabama Expected Line Movement and Early Prediction
So the early ATS money is split and bettors actually side with Crimson Tide on the money line. There’s a chance that line could move a few points toward the road team after the Tigers’ second half last week. Finally, expect Auburn to report late Saturday.
A veteran journalist for over two decades, Chris has taught the spectrum of fantasy hockey online, from injuries to news to prospects and more. He has betted on multiple sports and has written sports betting articles covering the NBA, MLB, NCAA football, NFL and NHL for USA Today.