BEAUTIFUL WARM UP: Temperatures are in the 50s in the northern half of Alabama this afternoon after hitting lows of between 18 and 28 degrees this morning. We are seeing low 60’s in southern Alabama with a good supply of sunshine. Clouds will increase across the state tonight, and most locations will remain above freezing for the first time in five days. We forecast early Tuesday lows of between 32 and 40 degrees.Tuesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the low 60s; We’ll keep the chance of a few scattered showers but most places will stay dry.
REST OF THE WEEK: Wednesday will be dry and mild with a high between 65 and 70 degrees as the warming trend continues. Clouds will increase for Thanksgiving, but it still looks like most of the rain will stay away by Thursday night. The high Thursday afternoon will be in the upper 60’s for most communities.
Rainy spells are likely to be Thursday night and Friday as a complex weather system is forming in the west. Some thunderstorms are possible, but severe storms are not expected at this time. High Friday will be near 60 degrees.
THE WEEKEND: Global models continue to be very inconsistent, leading to a below-average confidence forecast for Saturday. We need to maintain the chance of rain through Saturday morning, but right now it looks like the best chance of rain is shifting to eastern Alabama through Saturday afternoon. Sunday will be dry and comfortable with partly sunny skies. Weekend highs will be in the low 60s.
NEXT WEEK: Forecast confidence remains low with an active southern branch of the jet stream. New guidance suggests the weather will be dry on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a chance of rain on Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Then dry air will return on Thursday and Friday. The highs will be mostly in the 60s.IRON BOWL: For the biggest football game of the year in Tuscaloosa (Auburn at Alabama, kick-off at 2:30 p.m.), we’re still forecasting a dry afternoon, but clouds will likely linger over western Alabama. The kick-off temperature will be 62 degrees, dropping into the upper 50s in the second half. Some rain is very likely, although not likely, Saturday morning before the game in Tuscaloosa.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains calm and the hurricane season ends in nine days.
ON THIS DAY IN 1992: The November 21-23 tornado outbreak was the third largest in recorded history and one of the longest continuous outbreaks on record. There was no interruption in tornado activity from 1:30 p.m. on November 21, when the tornadoes began in Texas, until 7:30 a.m. on November 23, when the last tornadoes lifted in North Carolina. That day, severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes within 70 minutes in the Houston, Texas area. At one time there were three locals in Harris County. The strongest, an F4, pursued 20 miles through Houston’s eastern suburbs, destroying 200 homes and damaging 1,000 others.
A long-track F4 had a 128-mile damage path in Mississippi, stretching from just outside Hopewell to west of Sherwood. Twelve people were killed, eight of them in mobile homes. Another 122 people were injured as this monster swept through seven counties, damaging or destroying at least 700 homes, including well-built brick mansions.
Thirteen tornadoes would make landfall in Alabama on November 22nd.
BEACH FORECAST: Click here to view the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.